My work combines three kinds of tools. Causal inference on administrative data, such as tender records and NATO’s annual spending reports, shows how rules and shocks change what governments actually do. Formal models, from public-good models of alliances to contract and game theory, explain why they respond as they do. Computational text analysis traces how European institutions talk about defense. Alongside the dissertation, I work on security discourse in EU institutions and on the defense-industrial strategies of smaller states such as Czechia and Türkiye. My goal is to show how economic analysis can improve defense cooperation and policy design in Europe.

An up-to-date list of my work is also available on Google Scholar and ORCID.

Publications

Journal article2026Online first

Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty

Mümin AhmedoğluNew Perspectives

DOI

Working papers

Working paper2026

Just Below the Line: How European Defence Buyers Avoid the EU’s Procurement Rules

Mümin Ahmedoğlu

Working paper2026Under review at European Security

Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024

Mümin Ahmedoğlu

Working paper2026Under review at Defence and Peace Economics

Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement

Mümin Ahmedoğlu

Working paper2026Under review

European Security Structural Integration Through Pooling & Sharing in the Lens of Collective Actions in the Coalition of the Opting

Mümin Ahmedoğlu and Bohuslav Pernica

Working paper2025

Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy

Mümin Ahmedoğlu and Bohuslav Pernica

Current projects

Buying, Counting and Pooling: National Decisions under Common Rules in Europe’s Rearmament

PhD dissertation · University of Vienna · Supervised by Prof. Dr. Oliver Fabel and Ass.-Prof. Dr. Dmitriy Knyazev

Europe is rearming through three activities under common rules: it buys under the European Union’s procurement directives, counts its effort against NATO’s spending line, and pools capabilities in the programs of the Union and the Alliance. Each rule draws a margin, such as a value threshold, a list of legal grounds for awards without competition, a reported share of GDP, or the membership of a pool, and leaves the decision at that margin to national buyers and governments, who know more than the rule can see. My dissertation studies these national decisions and what they do to the goals the common rules serve: competition, real burden sharing, and joint capability.

Two essays study buying. The first, Just Below the Line, derives a buyer’s choice between tendering and direct award and finds that the estimated values of defense contracts in the national registers of Spain, Italy, and Portugal bunch just below the Union’s procurement thresholds. The bunching moves with a threshold when it is revised, and no difference is detected between defense and civilian buyers. The essay measures how many procedures the higher threshold of the 2026 Defence Readiness Omnibus will take out of European competition, and predicts that the bunching below the new threshold will be thin. The second, Buying Under Fire, asks how the demand shock of 2022 changed buyers’ choice of procedure and the legal grounds they invoke for awards without competition. The third essay, Paying to the Line, studies counting: it models compliance with NATO’s two-percent guideline as a choice between real spending and accounting effort, when the Alliance observes only their sum and the United States ties its protection to the reported figure, and confronts the model with a new real-time dataset of NATO’s releases. The fourth essay, written with Bohuslav Pernica, studies pooling across 496 programs of the Union and NATO and finds that integration is layered: functional in industry, associational in the rear echelon, and territorial in military operations.

The argument that joins the four essays is that common rules shape national decisions at the margins they draw, and that whether the rules’ goals are met depends on the choices they leave free. The dissertation draws design lessons for the rules now being rewritten: the Omnibus’s higher procurement threshold, and NATO’s new two-part target, for which a reward written on a reported figure invites no counting only if it rises gradually rather than jumping at the line.

Paying to the Line: Real and Reported Compliance with NATO’s Two-Percent Guideline

Third dissertation paper · In preparation

NATO’s two-percent guideline is a salient number, and the United States has repeatedly made its protection conditional on allies’ reported spending. The paper asks how allies reach the line: by spending more, by counting more (re-labelling expenditure that already exists, within NATO’s definition), or by announcing more (a figure that is later revised away), and what each way of reaching the line does to the alliance’s defense. Its evidence is NATO’s own figures read release by release: a new real-time dataset with one observation per release, ally, and year since 2014, covering first-published figures, their later revisions, and their composition, reconciled with SIPRI and national-accounts measures, together with a country-by-country inventory of what allies count under NATO’s definition. In the model, compliance is a choice: an ally can close its gap to the line with real spending or with accounting effort, NATO sees only their sum, and the shape of the reward decides who ends at the line, who counts, and whether counting costs the alliance real defense. A test of mechanism asks whether who reaches the line, and when, varies with U.S. conditionality and with dependence on U.S. protection, which separates conditional protection from a guideline that has simply become a goal. The paper closes with dated predictions for the new two-part target of 3.5% on core defense and up to 1.5% on related spending, to be judged against NATO’s releases before the 2029 review.

From the Periphery to the Centre? Czech and Turkish Ambition in NATO’s Airspace Industry

Joint project with Dr. Bohuslav Pernica

This comparative study assesses the ambitions of Czechia and Turkey within NATO’s airspace industry, particularly focusing on their respective military training jets—the L-39 NG and TAI Hürjet. The research explores how each country leverages its industrial base and government support to develop, produce, and export these advanced pilot training jets designed for the 4th–5th generation supersonic Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA). The study includes a detailed analysis of the involvement and strategic support by both governments in these projects, providing insights into how smaller NATO members can influence and integrate into the broader alliance’s defense capabilities.

Working paper: Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development

Completed projects

Synchronized Politics: Time, Power, and Policy Coordination in the European Union (SYNCPOL)

Graduate Research Assistant · Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München · ERC Advanced Grant

I contributed to the ERC Advanced Grant project SYNCPOL: Synchronized Politics – Multiple Times and Political Power, led by Prof. Klaus H. Goetz. The project investigates how temporal structures—such as urgency, foresight, and sequencing—shape power dynamics and policy coordination across EU institutions. My role focused on quantitatively modeling how time-related political language influences multi-level governance in the domains of migration and public health. This involved the semantic scaling of political speeches from the European Commission, Parliament, and Council using advanced NLP techniques, including fine-tuned Sentence-BERT models, dynamic embeddings, and PCA-based ideological mapping.

Project website

EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics

Master’s thesis · Technical University of Munich · Chair of Economics of Innovation

For my Master’s thesis, EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics: A Computational Analysis of European Commission and European Parliament Rhetoric and Their Drivers (2000–2024), supervised by Prof. Dr. Hanna Hottenrott and advised by Dr. David Angenendt, I conducted the first comprehensive quantitative study of European Union institutional discourse on defense cooperation and strategic autonomy from 2000 to 2024. Employing a multi-method approach that combined computational text analysis, panel data econometrics, and time-series methods, the project analyzed 6.41 million sentences from European Commission and European Parliament communications. Transformer-based models classified defense-related content with 98.4% accuracy, allowing the identification of four distinct discourse dimensions: defense emphasis, joint capability promotion, sovereignty-oriented framing, and threat justification.

Presented at ICES 2025, Ulster University, Belfast. Related working paper: Who Securitizes European Defense?

Research agenda

  • Procurement and market design. How procurement rules, procedures, and exemptions shape competition, supplier selection, and innovation in European defense markets, and how the 2022 rearmament shock changed them.
  • Alliance burden sharing. Who pays for collective defense, how spending targets and conditional protection change what allies spend, count, and report, and how much of reported compliance is real.
  • Defense cooperation and integration. How the European Defence Fund, PESCO, and other EU and NATO pooling arrangements organize cooperation between large and small states, and who leads it.
  • Security discourse. How EU institutions frame defense in terms of threat, sovereignty, and capability, and how crises change that language.
  • Smaller states in the defense-industrial system. How countries such as Czechia and Türkiye build niches, exports, and alliance relevance on their industrial bases.

Methods: Causal inference with administrative data, including difference-in-differences and bunching designs; formal models of public goods, contracts, and games; computational text analysis; network and structural analysis; and comparative case studies.

Other work

Project report2022

Design of a Decision Support System for Improving Sales Processes through an Offline Point-of-Sale System

Mümin AhmedoğluBachelor’s thesis (Systems Design Project), Middle East Technical University, with Şişecam

Link

Project report2021

Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility

Mümin AhmedoğluSystems Design Project, Middle East Technical University, with DHL Supply Chain

Link