Research
I study the economics of European defense: how it is bought, how its cost is counted, and how allies pool it. My work focuses on procurement, alliance burden sharing, and defense cooperation under Europe’s common rules.
My work combines three kinds of tools. Causal inference on administrative data, such as tender records and NATO’s annual spending reports, shows how rules and shocks change what governments actually do. Formal models, from public-good models of alliances to contract and game theory, explain why they respond as they do. Computational text analysis traces how European institutions talk about defense. Alongside the dissertation, I work on security discourse in EU institutions and on the defense-industrial strategies of smaller states such as Czechia and Türkiye. My goal is to show how economic analysis can improve defense cooperation and policy design in Europe.
An up-to-date list of my work is also available on Google Scholar and ORCID.
Publications
Journal article2026Online first
Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty
After 2022, Czechia drew unusual attention in European defense-industrial politics. Exports rose sharply. The multilateral Czech Ammunition Initiative delivered a cumulative 4.4 million large-caliber rounds to Ukraine. CSG N.V. was listed on Euronext Amsterdam in what was, by capital raised and market capitalization, the largest defense IPO on record. Public discourse increasingly casts the country as a contributor to European defense-technological sovereignty. The structural record is narrower than the discourse suggests. Czech defense production remains concentrated in ammunition and energetics, land platforms, and legacy overhaul. Czech participation in the European Defense Fund and PESCO is broad in count but thin in leadership. The country’s defense-industrial niches (CBRN defense, passive radar, large-caliber ammunition, small arms, MRO) derive their value from sustained capacity, not from new technological frontiers. I take this gap as my analytical object. Reading the Czech case through socio-technical imaginaries and the imaginary turn, and against the smart-small-power literature, I argue that Czech defense policy operates as a strategy of selective sovereignty. The components are familiar: calibrated participation in EU and NATO instruments, security of supply, embedded industrial roles, and the maintenance of established niches. What the dominant imaginary does is not industrial transformation. It actually renders legacy capacity legible as an alliance contribution and makes the continuity strategy politically intelligible. The Czech Ammunition Initiative is the paradigmatic case.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2026). Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty. New Perspectives. https://doi.org/10.1177/2336825X261466888
@article{ahmedoglu2026turning,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty},
journal = {New Perspectives},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.1177/2336825X261466888},
}
Working papers
Working paper2026
Just Below the Line: How European Defence Buyers Avoid the EU’s Procurement Rules
Below a value threshold, a European defence buyer may award a contract under national rules instead of the European Union’s procedures. This paper asks whether buyers use that freedom by setting a contract’s estimated value just below the threshold. It uses the national registers of Spain, Italy and Portugal, which record contracts on both sides of the thresholds, and an analysis plan registered after disclosed diagnostics and before the estimates. The same defence buyers face two thresholds: the Defence Directive’s, for military contracts, and the classical directive’s, for ordinary purchases. Estimates bunch below both. At the Defence Directive’s threshold the relative excess is 0.76 [0.33, 1.66] (95 % interval in brackets). Most of the excess sits on round estimates, a smaller excess remains without them, and the bunching moves with the threshold when the threshold is revised. The difference between the responses at the two thresholds is not detected, and not contradicted (0.20 [−0.25, 1.13]), and no difference is detected between defence and civilian buyers at the threshold they share (−0.15 [−0.31, 0.05]). The Defence Readiness Omnibus of 2026 raises the Defence Directive’s threshold for supplies and services to EUR 2,000,000. At the three registers’ defence buyers, 1,776 procedures launched in 2013–2026 fall in the band that the move takes out of the Union’s procedures, while the bunching it will create below the new threshold is predicted to be thin. Buyers act on the thresholds; who wins the contracts that the move frees is a question for the move itself.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2026). Just Below the Line: How European Defence Buyers Avoid the EU’s Procurement Rules [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.com/research/just-below-the-line/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2026just,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Just Below the Line: How European Defence Buyers Avoid the EU’s Procurement Rules},
year = {2026},
note = {Working paper},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.com/research/just-below-the-line/},
}
Working paper2026Under review at European Security
Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024
How do EU institutions talk about defense, and what does crisis do to that talk? This article measures securitizing discourse—the moves, not their acceptance—across the Union’s three principal voices: 6.05 million sentences of European Commission speeches and European Parliament plenary debates (2000–2024) and the European Council’s summit conclusions, decomposed by a validated transformer pipeline into defense salience and three registers: threat justification, sovereignty framing, and joint-capability promotion. Three findings emerge. (1) Collective securitization is institutionally differentiated: the Commission’s discourse is capability-heavy (its share roughly 1.7 times the Parliament’s; d=2.0) and couples threat with capability language, while the Parliament’s is threat- and salience-heavy (d=-4.8) and opposes the two—the same shocks are translated into different registers by different institutional positions. (2) Securitization is punctuated with register-specific timing: 2014 broke the threat and sovereignty registers, 2022 broke salience itself (+91% in supranational speech; odds ratios 1.7–6.2 across institutions). (3) Crisis composition follows politicizing substitution: after 2022, threat and sovereignty framing gain while capability framing falls in all three institutions—compositional log-ratio models confirm the shift, and an explicit interaction test finds no significant difference between the intergovernmental and supranational voices. Politicization, these results suggest, operates inside supranational discourse itself; what changes at the extreme is the referent of sovereignty, which becomes markedly more European. The article contributes an institutional anatomy to collective securitization theory and a discursive observable to the politicization debate.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2026). Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024 [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.com/research/who-securitizes-european-defense/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2026who,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024},
year = {2026},
note = {Working paper. Under review at European Security},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.com/research/who-securitizes-european-defense/},
}
Working paper2026Under review at Defence and Peace Economics
Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement
When a large, unexpected demand shock hits a discretionary procurement system, do public buyers compete more or less? I provide causal evidence for defense procurement, using the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a single, common shock to European rearmament. On the near-universe of EU tender records (EU-27, the UK, and Norway, 2014–2026), I estimate a defense-versus-civilian difference-in-differences with country-by-year fixed effects. Competition fell, and defense procurement shifted about ten percentage points toward the negotiated procedure without prior publication—legal sole-source awards that bypass open tendering—routed to the incumbent prime contractors that European defense-industrial policy has cultivated. Decomposing the legal justifications buyers must state, the shift is driven by “technical-monopoly” rather than urgency grounds. Replicating and extending a published coverage benchmark, I rule out that procurement migrated off-record into Article 346 exemptions; the effect survives Honest-DiD and leave-one-out checks. When rearmament meets buyer discretion, spending is absorbed by incumbents through legal exemptions rather than competition.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2026). Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.com/research/buying-under-fire/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2026buying,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement},
year = {2026},
note = {Working paper. Under review at Defence and Peace Economics},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.com/research/buying-under-fire/},
}
Working paper2026Under review
European Security Structural Integration Through Pooling & Sharing in the Lens of Collective Actions in the Coalition of the Opting
Pooling and sharing has become a vehicle of European structural integration in security and defence, but the patterns that drive it remain understudied. Applying Galtung’s theory of structural integration to 496 pools of the European Union and NATO and to the participations of 28 European states, we ask which principles of integration drive the pools and how Western and post-communist states differ. Network and gravity analyses show that the three principles organise different layers of the pooled supply chain. Industry is integrated functionally, around four large states that frame programmes by capacity and across distance; the rear echelon associationally, where post-communist states associated on their shared institutional heritage; and military operations territorially, among neighbours of related culture. Framing ties are reciprocated, as the coalition of the opting implies. After 2022 the post-communist states lost ground in the common capabilities, while allied troops moved to their territory. Structural integration through pooling is layered.
Ahmedoğlu, M., & Pernica, B. (2026). European Security Structural Integration Through Pooling & Sharing in the Lens of Collective Actions in the Coalition of the Opting [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.com/research/pools-european-structural-integration/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2026european,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin and Pernica, Bohuslav},
title = {European Security Structural Integration Through Pooling \& Sharing in the Lens of Collective Actions in the Coalition of the Opting},
year = {2026},
note = {Working paper. Under review},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.com/research/pools-european-structural-integration/},
}
Working paper2025
Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy
The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish Hürjet represent two contrasting approaches to the development of military training aircraft, reflecting different national attitudes toward defense-industrial policy, procurement models, and global market positioning. The study examines the economic, historical, and geopolitical factors underlying the two programs, situating them within the context of Johan Galtung’s structural theories of integration and imperialism as well as contemporary defense economics literature. Utilizing a comparative case study method, the research evaluates determinative factors such as government involvement, procurement autonomy, alliance integration, market competitiveness, and industrial scaling. The findings underscore that Czechia’s approach is one of niche specialization within NATO’s supply chain, leveraging legacy capabilities for export production, whereas Turkey’s holistic defense industrialization and strategic autonomy model relies on state-sponsored investment to challenge advanced Western suppliers. This examination makes important contributions to the literature on defense policy by demonstrating how mid-sized and smaller states can successfully manage the global arms market’s dynamics, striking a balance between integration and autonomy while developing viable aerospace industries. The research further offers policy suggestions to improve national defense R&D, promote cooperation within alliances, and minimize supply chain dependencies. Finally, the L-39NG and Hürjet cases embody the new roles of emerging defense producers amid a growing multipolar military-industrial structure.
Ahmedoğlu, M., & Pernica, B. (2025). Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.com/research/l39ng-hurjet-trainer-jets/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2025comparative,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin and Pernica, Bohuslav},
title = {Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy},
year = {2025},
note = {Working paper},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.com/research/l39ng-hurjet-trainer-jets/},
}
Current projects
Buying, Counting and Pooling: National Decisions under Common Rules in Europe’s Rearmament
PhD dissertation · University of Vienna · Supervised by Prof. Dr. Oliver Fabel and Ass.-Prof. Dr. Dmitriy Knyazev
Europe is rearming through three activities under common rules: it buys under the European Union’s procurement directives, counts its effort against NATO’s spending line, and pools capabilities in the programs of the Union and the Alliance. Each rule draws a margin, such as a value threshold, a list of legal grounds for awards without competition, a reported share of GDP, or the membership of a pool, and leaves the decision at that margin to national buyers and governments, who know more than the rule can see. My dissertation studies these national decisions and what they do to the goals the common rules serve: competition, real burden sharing, and joint capability.
Two essays study buying. The first, Just Below the Line, derives a buyer’s choice between tendering and direct award and finds that the estimated values of defense contracts in the national registers of Spain, Italy, and Portugal bunch just below the Union’s procurement thresholds. The bunching moves with a threshold when it is revised, and no difference is detected between defense and civilian buyers. The essay measures how many procedures the higher threshold of the 2026 Defence Readiness Omnibus will take out of European competition, and predicts that the bunching below the new threshold will be thin. The second, Buying Under Fire, asks how the demand shock of 2022 changed buyers’ choice of procedure and the legal grounds they invoke for awards without competition. The third essay, Paying to the Line, studies counting: it models compliance with NATO’s two-percent guideline as a choice between real spending and accounting effort, when the Alliance observes only their sum and the United States ties its protection to the reported figure, and confronts the model with a new real-time dataset of NATO’s releases. The fourth essay, written with Bohuslav Pernica, studies pooling across 496 programs of the Union and NATO and finds that integration is layered: functional in industry, associational in the rear echelon, and territorial in military operations.
The argument that joins the four essays is that common rules shape national decisions at the margins they draw, and that whether the rules’ goals are met depends on the choices they leave free. The dissertation draws design lessons for the rules now being rewritten: the Omnibus’s higher procurement threshold, and NATO’s new two-part target, for which a reward written on a reported figure invites no counting only if it rises gradually rather than jumping at the line.
Paying to the Line: Real and Reported Compliance with NATO’s Two-Percent Guideline
Third dissertation paper · In preparation
NATO’s two-percent guideline is a salient number, and the United States has repeatedly made its protection conditional on allies’ reported spending. The paper asks how allies reach the line: by spending more, by counting more (re-labelling expenditure that already exists, within NATO’s definition), or by announcing more (a figure that is later revised away), and what each way of reaching the line does to the alliance’s defense. Its evidence is NATO’s own figures read release by release: a new real-time dataset with one observation per release, ally, and year since 2014, covering first-published figures, their later revisions, and their composition, reconciled with SIPRI and national-accounts measures, together with a country-by-country inventory of what allies count under NATO’s definition. In the model, compliance is a choice: an ally can close its gap to the line with real spending or with accounting effort, NATO sees only their sum, and the shape of the reward decides who ends at the line, who counts, and whether counting costs the alliance real defense. A test of mechanism asks whether who reaches the line, and when, varies with U.S. conditionality and with dependence on U.S. protection, which separates conditional protection from a guideline that has simply become a goal. The paper closes with dated predictions for the new two-part target of 3.5% on core defense and up to 1.5% on related spending, to be judged against NATO’s releases before the 2029 review.
From the Periphery to the Centre? Czech and Turkish Ambition in NATO’s Airspace Industry
Joint project with Dr. Bohuslav Pernica
This comparative study assesses the ambitions of Czechia and Turkey within NATO’s airspace industry, particularly focusing on their respective military training jets—the L-39 NG and TAI Hürjet. The research explores how each country leverages its industrial base and government support to develop, produce, and export these advanced pilot training jets designed for the 4th–5th generation supersonic Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA). The study includes a detailed analysis of the involvement and strategic support by both governments in these projects, providing insights into how smaller NATO members can influence and integrate into the broader alliance’s defense capabilities.
Working paper: Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development
Completed projects
Synchronized Politics: Time, Power, and Policy Coordination in the European Union (SYNCPOL)
Graduate Research Assistant · Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München · ERC Advanced Grant
I contributed to the ERC Advanced Grant project SYNCPOL: Synchronized Politics – Multiple Times and Political Power, led by Prof. Klaus H. Goetz. The project investigates how temporal structures—such as urgency, foresight, and sequencing—shape power dynamics and policy coordination across EU institutions. My role focused on quantitatively modeling how time-related political language influences multi-level governance in the domains of migration and public health. This involved the semantic scaling of political speeches from the European Commission, Parliament, and Council using advanced NLP techniques, including fine-tuned Sentence-BERT models, dynamic embeddings, and PCA-based ideological mapping.
EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics
Master’s thesis · Technical University of Munich · Chair of Economics of Innovation
For my Master’s thesis, EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics: A Computational Analysis of European Commission and European Parliament Rhetoric and Their Drivers (2000–2024), supervised by Prof. Dr. Hanna Hottenrott and advised by Dr. David Angenendt, I conducted the first comprehensive quantitative study of European Union institutional discourse on defense cooperation and strategic autonomy from 2000 to 2024. Employing a multi-method approach that combined computational text analysis, panel data econometrics, and time-series methods, the project analyzed 6.41 million sentences from European Commission and European Parliament communications. Transformer-based models classified defense-related content with 98.4% accuracy, allowing the identification of four distinct discourse dimensions: defense emphasis, joint capability promotion, sovereignty-oriented framing, and threat justification.
Presented at ICES 2025, Ulster University, Belfast. Related working paper: Who Securitizes European Defense?
Research agenda
- Procurement and market design. How procurement rules, procedures, and exemptions shape competition, supplier selection, and innovation in European defense markets, and how the 2022 rearmament shock changed them.
- Alliance burden sharing. Who pays for collective defense, how spending targets and conditional protection change what allies spend, count, and report, and how much of reported compliance is real.
- Defense cooperation and integration. How the European Defence Fund, PESCO, and other EU and NATO pooling arrangements organize cooperation between large and small states, and who leads it.
- Security discourse. How EU institutions frame defense in terms of threat, sovereignty, and capability, and how crises change that language.
- Smaller states in the defense-industrial system. How countries such as Czechia and Türkiye build niches, exports, and alliance relevance on their industrial bases.
Methods: Causal inference with administrative data, including difference-in-differences and bunching designs; formal models of public goods, contracts, and games; computational text analysis; network and structural analysis; and comparative case studies.
Other work
Project report2022
Design of a Decision Support System for Improving Sales Processes through an Offline Point-of-Sale System
Şişecam is a well-established glass manufacturer founded in 1935 to meet Turkey’s demand for glass products. The project focuses on the point-of-sale (POS) systems used in the Turkish retail stores of Paşabahçe, Şişecam’s glassware brand. Under the existing system, planned or unplanned outages can render the POS systems inoperable, so payments cannot be processed, sales are lost, and customers are left dissatisfied. The problem is therefore defined as designing an offline POS system that recovers the sales lost during disruptions of the online system, and selecting compatible offline POS software.
The proposed solution comprises a database design, an evaluation of the design through simulation, a break-even analysis, system integration, the identification of supplier selection criteria and alternatives, and the selection and application of a multi-criteria decision-making method. The project concludes with an implementation plan and recommendations for the company.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2022). Design of a Decision Support System for Improving Sales Processes through an Offline Point-of-Sale System [Bachelor’s thesis (Systems Design Project), Middle East Technical University, with Şişecam]. https://ahmedoglu.com/research/sisecam-offline-pos-decision-support/
@misc{ahmedoglu2022design,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Design of a Decision Support System for Improving Sales Processes through an Offline Point-of-Sale System},
year = {2022},
note = {Bachelor’s thesis (Systems Design Project), Middle East Technical University, with Şişecam},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.com/research/sisecam-offline-pos-decision-support/},
}
Project report2021
Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility
DHL Supply Chain operates in more than 55 countries and has over 2,600 facilities worldwide, employing 146,000 people. In contract logistics, it offers end-to-end services to industry customers. The project involves the cross-shipment of orders transported from Eastern Europe to Turkey for DHL’s automotive manufacturer client. Orders collected from more than 70 suppliers are consolidated at a cross-docking facility before being sent to the client. In this consolidation process, the urgency of the products and consolidation constraints are taken into account. The order quantity from the suppliers, collection frequency, and the order consolidation decisions at the cross-docking facility constitute a significant portion of the logistics cost. Therefore, DHL requires a specialized decision support algorithm that minimizes end-to-end costs in the supply chain. The aim of the project is to develop a shipment decision support system that ensures the customer’s production line is supplied without delay, minimizes vehicle and inventory carrying costs, and schedules the collection of orders from suppliers based on the products to be consolidated at the cross-docking facility while minimizing the number of vehicles dispatched from the facility during the planning period.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2021). Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility [Systems Design Project, Middle East Technical University, with DHL Supply Chain]. https://ahmedoglu.com/research/dhl-crossdock-decision-support/
@misc{ahmedoglu2021integrated,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility},
year = {2021},
note = {Systems Design Project, Middle East Technical University, with DHL Supply Chain},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.com/research/dhl-crossdock-decision-support/},
}